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الأربعاء، 7 مارس 2018

A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR UNDERSTANDING THE socio hydrological dynamics


A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR UNDERSTANDING THE socio hydrological dynamics


Yali E. Woyessa, Worku A. Welderufael, Desalegn C. EdossaSchool of Civil Engineering and Built EnvironmentCentral University of Technology, Free StatePrivate Bag X20539Bloemfontein 9300, South Africa


Abstract

  Human actions affect ecological systems and the services they provide through various activities, such as land use, water use, pollution and climate change.Climate change is perhapsone ofthe most importantsustainable development challengesthat threaten to undo many of the development efforts being made to reach the targets set for the Millennium Development Goals.Understanding the change ofecosystems under different scenariosof climate and biophysical conditionscouldassist in bringing the issue of ecosystem services into decision making process. Similarly, the impacts of land use change on ecosystems and biodiversity have received considerable attention from ecologists and hydrologists alike.Land-use change in a catchment mayimpact on water supply by altering hydrological processes,such as infiltration, groundwater recharge, base flow and direct runoff.In the past a variety of models were used for predicting land-use changes. Recently the focus has shifted away from using mathematically oriented models to agent-based modelling (ABM) approach to simulate land use scenarios. A conceptual framework is being developed which integrates climate change scenarios and the human dimension of land usedecision into a hydrological model in order to assess its impacts on the socio-hydrological dynamics of a river basin.The following figures present the framework for the analysis and modelling of the socio-hydrological dynamics.

Keywords: land use, river basin,climate change

5.CONCLUSIONS

  Global climatic changes threaten the livelihoods of the farming community in the developing countries and in most of the Sub-Saharan African countries. The cyclic effects of climate and land use change may cause a double fold negative impact on the water resources of the aforementioned countries. As most of the populations of these countries income and food depend on agricultural production, water is the most critical natural resource. To minimize the future crises in water resources resulting from land use and global climatic change and in order to take proactive measures for sustainable water resources utilization, development of an integrated socio-hydrological model could be a step in the right direction in the development of a decision support system.


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