The Future Impacts of Climate Change
on Egyptian Population
by Khaled El-Sayed Hassan
Economic Demographer and Statistical Expert, Egyptian Society for Migration Studies
Ph.D. in Managerial Economy, Sadat Academy for Management Sciences (SMAM)
email: kehassan@gmail.com
Introduction:
Egypt is one of the potential vulnerable countries to the effect of Global Warming (World Bank, 2009), and regarded as the fifteenth most populated country in the world with susceptible human-induced of environment that would worsen the prevalent problems (El-Shahawi, 2004). Egypt’s negative environmental consequences of climate warming represents in the rise of sea level, water scarcity, agriculture and food insufficiency, and pressures on human health and national economy. The future impact of the above negative environmental consequences of climate change on the Egypt’s population dimensions and dynamics are the main points of concern in this study.
Data sources: The study is based on data of the assessment of the elements of climate change obtained from different sources such:
Center for Remote Sensing at Boston University,
World Bank, 2
Center of International Earth Science Information Network,
Center for health and the Global Environment, Harvard Medical School,
Climate Prediction and Application Center (ICPAC),
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
United Nations Environment Program (UNEP),
World Meteorological Organization (WMO),
Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency, and
Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics, Egypt.
Methodology: The study pursued the descriptive approach in analyzing data collected from different sources about the emphasis of clime change and its future impacts on the demography, geography, and economic situations of Egypt.
1. Emphasizes of climate change in Egypt:
Egypt is expected to suffer from many emphasizes of climate change in the recent century. These emphasizes can be summarized in the following points:
1. The future predictions of average temperature in Egypt, as a result of global warming to an increase by 4OC in Cairo and by 3.1 to 4.7 OC in the rest of Egypt by 2060 (Taeleb, 1999). The International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC) projected a further 2-11 degree Fahrenheit (1.4 to 5.8 OC) rise in average global surface temperature during the 21st century (http://EzineArticles.com/1079061).
2. The annual precipitation may drop by 10 to 40% over most of Egypt by 2100.
3. Raising the Mediterranean Sea level by 0.5m by 2050. This will lead to flooding the coastal areas along the Nile Delta.
2. Impacts of climate change on population
Of course, the occurrence of the above emphasizes of climate changes will associate with doubling the Egyptian population to be 160 million by the middle of the century (2050). Such association between climate change and population increase will lead to many unfavorable demographic, geographic and economic factors, can be summarized in the following sections:
2.1. Population and water security
The first impact of climate change in Egypt is likely to be felt in water domain. Water is already a limited resource, with per capita share at the edge of poverty line, below 1000m3 per year (El Quosy, 1999). Nile River provides more than 95% of all water to Egypt. The annual rainfall varies from a maximum of 180mm/year on the North coast, to an average of 20 mm on the middle of Egypt to 2 mm/year on the Upper Egypt. Both water supply and demand are expected to be exaggerated by climate change. It is expected by 2050 that climate change will raise water demand by an average of 5% (Eid, 1999). Most of the future projections indicate to declines in water availability, reach in some cases to 70% (El Guosy, 2008). Agriculture sector will be the most effected economic sector from the shortage of water, it consume 80% of water budget, absorb 40% of Egyptian labor, and constitutes 20% of gross national Product (GNP).
Population and food security
Sea level rise is another impact of climate change. Nile Delta is already subsiding at a rate of 3-5mm per year. A rise of 1.0m would flood one-fourth of the Nile Delta, forcing about 10.5 percent of Egypt’s population from their homes (World Bank). The impact would be more staggering if Egypt’s population, as expected, doubles to about 160 million by the middle of the century, with the current population density in Delta of about 4,000 people per square mile.
As a result of sea level rise and flooding a great part of Nile Delta (the most cultivated part of Egypt’s land), food production and supply would be effected. Nearly half of Egypt’s crops, including wheat, bananas and rice, are grown in the Delta. On the other hand the remain areas of Nile Delta (not under water) would also be affected, with salt water from the Mediterranean Sea which will contaminate the fresh ground water used for irrigation.
Agriculture activities and self-sufficiency of food will expose to an additional effect as a result of temperature increase. The decline in agriculture activities due to temperature increases is expected to range from 10 to 60%. The production of the strategic crops will achieve significant reduction by the middle of the century (2050) as the following:
Production of wheat will reduce by 18%.
Production of rice will reduce by 11%.
Production of maize will reduce by 19%.
Such losses, if it is not planed and financed, will increase the risk of malnutrition and hunger among population (UNEP, 1997), especially with the low level of Gross Domestic Production (GDP) and per capita income (below US$ 1.200 per person). The following map explains that Egypt is among the high potential countries/regions for food crisis during the coming 40 years.
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