Determinants of Electricity Demand in Libya:
An Empirical Study for the Period 1980-2010
Khulod Ali El sahati
A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of Liverpool John Moores University for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy
September 2014
Table of Contents
Table of Contents --------------------------------------------------------------------------ii
List of Tables ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ vii
List of Figures -----------------------------------------------------------------------------viii
Acknowledgements ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ix
Preface ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------x
Abstract -------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- xi
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION TO THE RESEARCH --------------------- 1
1.0 Research background ----------------------------------------------------------------- 1
1.1 Research questions -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3
1.2 Scope ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 4
1.3 The aim and objectives---------------------------------------------------------------- 4
1.4 Research method----------------------------------------------------------------------- 6
1.5 The main findings and potential implications ------------------------------------- 6
1.6 Structure of the thesis ---------------------------------------------------------------- 9
CHAPTER TWO: REVIEW OF THE ENERGY SECTOR IN LIBYA--------13
2.0 Introduction ---------------------------------------------------------------------------13
2.1 Libya as a country --------------------------------------------------------------------13
2.1.1 Society in Libya --------------------------------------------------------------------15
2.1.2 Socio-economic development--------------------------------------------------------17
2.1.3 Social context and human development --------------------------------------------18
2.1.4 Policy issues relating to energy -----------------------------------------------------19
2.1.5 Macroeconomic policy---------------------------------------------------------------20
2.1.6 Economic and political governance ------------------------------------------------22
2.1.7 Conflict devastates the economy-----------------------------------------------------23
2.2 The concept of energy----------------------------------------------------------------25
2.3 Sources of energy---------------------------------------------------------------------27
2.3.1 Non-renewable sources of energy ------------------------------------------------27
2.3.2 Renewable energy sources --------------------------------------------------------28
2.4 The role of energy sources in the Libyan economy-------------------------------29
2.4.1 Evolution reserves of oil and natural gas ----------------------------------------31
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2.4.2 The development of production of oil and natural gas ------------------------34
2.5 The development of electric power in Libya ------------------------------------36
2.5.1 Power plants ------------------------------------------------------------------------36
2.5.2 Transport networks-----------------------------------------------------------------40
2.5.3 Distribution networks--------------------------------------------------------------41
2.6 Electrical projects in Libya ----------------------------------------------------------41
2.7 Comparison of the current practice in UK energy sector and Libyan energy sector
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------44
2.7.1 The current practice in the UK energy sector -----------------------------------44
2.7.2 The current practice in the Libyan energy sector -------------------------------48
2.7.3 Comparison of the two energy sectors-------------------------------------------53
2.8 Discussion -----------------------------------------------------------------------------55
2.9 Chapter summary-----------------------------------------------------------------------59
CHAPTER THREE: DEMAND FOR ELECTRIC POWER IN THE ECONOMIC
LITERATURE-------------------------------------------------------------60
3.0 Introduction ---------------------------------------------------------------------------60
3.1 Characteristics of electric power ---------------------------------------------------62
3.2 An overview of previous studies of the demand for electricity -----------------63
3.3 Determinants of demand for electricity -------------------------------------------76
3.3.1 The role of income on demand for electricity ----------------------------------76
3.3.2 The role of imported appliances on the demand for electricity ---------------79
3.3.3 Population growth as a determinant of electricity demand -------------------80
3.3.4 Economic growth as a determinant of electricity demand --------------------83
3.3.5 Industrial sector --------------------------------------------------------------------84
3.3.6 Environmental factors affecting electricity demand ---------------------------86
3.3.7 Insulation/heating demand --------------------------------------------------------87
3.3.8 Electricity demand factors from government energy policies ----------------88
3.3.9 Pricing factors ----------------------------------------------------------------------91
3.3.10 Lifestyle factors ------------------------------------------------------------------94
3.3.11 Political factors on supply -------------------------------------------------------98
3.4 Chapter summary ------------------------------------------------------------------ 100
CHAPTER FOUR: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY --------------------------- 101
4.0 Introduction ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 101
4.1 Reasoning methods ---------------------------------------------------------------- 101
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4.2 Research philosophy --------------------------------------------------------------- 103
4.3 Research strategies ----------------------------------------------------------------- 105
4.4 Research questions ----------------------------------------------------------------- 111
4.5 Research techniques ----------------------------------------------------------------l14
4.6 Quantitative methods used in this study ----------------------------------------- 118
4.6.1 Ordinary least-squares OLS regression --------------------------------------- 119
4.6.1.1 Assumptions made in OLS---------------------------------------------------- 121
4.6.1.2 Advantages and disadvantages of the OLS method ----------------------- 122
4.6.1.3 Multiple OLS regression ----------------------------------------------------- 124
4.6.2 Cointegration and Granger Causality test ------------------------------------- 127
4.7 Qualitative methods used in this study ------------------------------------------ 131
4.7.1 Research design ------------------------------------------------------------------ 131
4.7.2 Sample design -------------------------------------------------------------------- 132
4.7.3 Questionnaires ------------------------------------------------------------------- 133
4.7.4 Data analysis --------------------------------------------------------------------- 135
4.8 Verification and validation ------------------------------------------------------- 135
4.8.1 Verification process in this study----------------------------------------------- 137
4.8.2 Validation process in this study------------------------------------------------- 138
4.9 Ethical procedures------------------------------------------------------------------ 141
4.10 Chapter summary ----------------------------------------------------------------- 143
CHAPTER FIVE: ESTIMATION OF ELECTRICITY DEMAND FUNCTION--- 144
5.0 Introduction ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 144
5.1 Characterisation of the model used ----------------------------------------------- 145
5.2 Estimation method------------------------------------------------------------------ 146
5.3 Estimation of electricity demand function --------------------------------------- 148
5.3.1 Summary statistics --------------------------------------------------------------- 149
5.3.2 Correlation ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 151
5.3.3 Model specification tests -------------------------------------------------------- 154
5.3.4 Test for Heteroscedasticity ------------------------------------------------------ 158
5.3.5 Durbin H test for autocorrelation ----------------------------------------------- 159
5.4 Regression results ------------------------------------------------------------------ 160
5.4.1 The (t- tests) for significance of the predictors-------------------------------- 162
5.4.2 The (F- test) for overall significance ------------------------------------------- 163
5.5 Determination of the elasticities of demand ------------------------------------- 164
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5.6 Cointegration and Granger Causality test---------------------------------------- 166
5.7 Discussion --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 169
5.8 Chapter summary------------------------------------------------------------------- 170
CHAPTER SIX: INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL DETERMINANTS OF
ELECTRICITY PROJECTS IN LIBYA---------------------------------
6.0 Introduction ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 173
6.1 The electricity projects in Libya -------------------------------------------------- 175
6.2 Internal determinants of electricity projects in Libya -------------------------- 180
6.2.1 Electricity demand effect on Libya’s electricity projects-------------------- 180
6.2.2 The effects of political factors on Libya’s electricity projects -------------- 182
6.2.3 Electricity tariff effect on Libya’s electricity projects ----------------------- 184
6.3 External determinants of electricity projects in Libya-------------------------- 185
6.3.1 Recession-------------------------------------------------------------------------- 185
6.3.2 The effects of oil prices in Libya’s electricity projects ---------------------- 187
6.3.3 The development of other infrastructure--------------------------------------- 189
6.4 Discussion --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 190
6.5 Chapter Summary ------------------------------------------------------------------ 193
CHAPTER SEVEN: FRAMEWORK FOR ELECTRICITY ORGANISATION AND
VALIDATION ----------------------------------------------------------------
7.0 Introduction ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 194
7.1 The rationale of the proposed framework---------------------------------------- 194
7.2 Aspects of the proposed framework --------------------------------------------- 195
7.3 The aim and objectives of the validation---------------------------------------- 199
7.4 Validation method ----------------------------------------------------------------- 199
7.5 Validation results ------------------------------------------------------------------ 202
7.5.1 Estimation of electricity demand function ------------------------------------- 203
7.5.2 Effect of internal and external determinants of electricity projects in Libya205
7.5.2.1 Electricity demand effect on Libya’s electricity projects------------------ 205
7.5.2.2 The effects of political factors on Libya’s electricity projects ------------ 206
7.5.2.3 Electricity tariffs effect on Libya’s electricity projects -------------------- 207
7.5.2.4 Recession------------------------------------------------------------------------ 208
7.5.2.5 The effects of oil prices on Libya’s electricity projects-------------------- 208
7.5.2.6 The development of other infrastructure ------------------------------------ 209
7.6 Limitations -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 210
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7.7 Key implications of the proposed framework ---------------------------------- 211
7.7.1 Expansion of the production of the existing electricity plants -------------- 214
7.7.2 Development of new power plants -------------------------------------------- 215
7.8 Discussion -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 216
7.9 Chapter summary ------------------------------------------------------------------ 217
CHAPTER EIGHT: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS -------- 218
8.0 Introduction ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 218
8.1 Research findings and conclusions ---------------------------------------------- 220
8.2 Limitations of the study ----------------------------------------------------------- 227
8.3 Contributions to research --------------------------------------------------------- 230
8.4 Recommendations ----------------------------------------------------------------- 231
8.4.1 Recommendations to the Libyan government -------------------------------- 232
8.4.2 Recommendations to the national General Electric Company of Libya --- 233
8.4.3 Recommendations to other sectors of the economy ------------------------- 234
8.4.4 Recommendations for future research ----------------------------------------- 235
REFERENCES --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 237
APPENDICES --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 269
Abstract
Energy is one of the main and most important elements for achieving social and economic development throughout the world. Electricity is one of the most essential sources of energy. The importance stems from the role of electric power in fulfilling the main consumption needs for basic energy as one of the inputs to the production process. To date, the focus of the research in the field of the demand for electricity has been mainly on developed economies. Adding to the few studies carried out in the developing economies, this study has investigated the issue in the Libyan context.
This study aimed to analyse and identify the determinants or factors affecting the demand for electricity in Libya during the period 1980-2010. The study focused on the use of ordinary least square techniques, test for co-integration and Granger Causality in constructing an empirical model of the demand function for electricity. Furthermore, there was a discussion on the external and internal determinants of projects that produce electricity in Libya as examined and analysed through a questionnaire and case study method. It also adopted a validation process achieved through focus group discussion to discuss and validate the proposed framework for the organisation of electricity
The regressions results showed that the variables the average real price of electricity demand, the real value of the imported electrical appliances, GDP, population, the temperature difference and the lagged electricity demand explained 99 per cent of the total variation in electricity demand. The price elasticity of demand and income elasticity of demand are inelastic, that means that the Libyan economy now consumes the highest amount of electricity, and electric energy in Libya is a real necessity.
Noting that the price elasticity of demand and income elasticity of demand in the long run are greater than elasticities in the short run, this means that these variables have a significant impact on the long term. According to the proposed model, the average price of electricity and the population are significant determinants of electricity demand, therefore, it implies that individuals are likely to demand electricity when the prices of electric are low, this result is confirmed from the Granger Causality results, in which it was established that a bilateral causality also exists from real values of imported electrical appliances to electricity demand and from population to electricity demand.
In regard to the supply side of electricity, the questionnaire results show that the internal determinants of electricity projects in Libya are electricity demand and political effects. The external determinants are recession, oil prices and development of other infrastructure. The development of other infrastructure was the most effective factor regarding the external determinants on the electricity projects in Libya, where the development in the residential sector has had a greater impact in increasing electricity projects during the last four decades. It is worth mentioning that the deregulation of the economy at the beginning of the nineties led to the development of the commercial sector and this in turn led to an increase in demand for electricity.
The main outcome of the validation was that the proposed framework was found practical and provided a methodology for solutions that can be taken up by the electric sector and for the government to adopt regular mechanisms to deal with the consistent upsurge in the demand and provide the basis for stable supply of electricity. The four focus groups of participants believed that energy firms in Libya and the Libyan state should take action and integrate the proposed framework. The actions are: economic planning, socio-economic development policy, development of new power plants and the expansion of the existing capacity; and improved development of other infrastructure. The increased demand of electricity in Libya compels the government, the electricity company and the other sectors of the economy to come up with a sustainable framework to meet the energy demands of the country. As established in this research, the construction of new power projects is the only long-term solution that will address the present and future energy needs.
CHAPTER EIGHT: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
8.0 INTRODUCTION
This chapter presented the main findings of the research based on the research aim and objectives. As noted in chapter one, the main aim of the research was to examine and identify key determinants affecting the demand for electricity in Libya, based on the findings, the study proposes a framework for the electricity sector. In order to achieve this aim, the following objectives were developed:
Review current practice in the Libyan energy sector and compare it with that of the United Kingdom; Identify factors contributing to the econometric framework of demand function for electricity in Libya;
Compare the tracking ability of the demand for electricity model with other models that can be developed for Libya;
Examine the effect of internal/external determinants of electricity projects in Libya;
Propose a framework for electricity organisations in Libya ; and The thesis was divided into eight chapters. Chapter one presented an explanation of the rationale behind the research. Potential implications of the study in the real world were evaluated and discussed.
The first objective, reviewed current practice in the Libyan energy sector and compared this to that of the United Kingdom. This was achieved in chapter two. The second chapter reviewed the entire energy sector in Libya, this entailed the concept of energy and energy sources, with Libya as the point of reference. The research further discussed the role of energy and its sources play in the Libyan economy. There was a discussion on the evolution reserves of oil and natural gas in Libya and other sources of energy and their development and production. That discussion also involved the development of electric power in Libya with an analysis of the power plants, transport, distribution networks and electricity projects in Libya. In addition, the chapter compared the present energy practices in Libya with the energy sector in the United Kingdom.
The third chapter discussed the demand for electric power in the economic literature and included the inherent characteristics of electric power and the determinants of electric power in Libya, including the roles played by income, imported appliances, population growth and economic growth. The electricity industry in Libya and the factors that affect it such as government policies, pricing, lifestyle and political factors were also discussed.
The fourth chapter discussed the research methodology that incorporated the economic theories and methods of electricity demand, the research techniques, methods and questions. The quantitative methods of the study evaluated the OLS regression methods and its assumptions, including the advantages and disadvantages. The multiple OLS regression, test for cointegration and Granger Causality were tested. This chapter also included the research design, sample design, recruitment of participants, questionnaires and data analysis and verification and validation of the data and results.
The fifth chapter examined and identified key determinants affecting the demand for electricity in Libya. This chapter discussed the process of estimation of electricity demand function in Libya for the period (1980-2010) using the method of least squares technique (OLS) (Ordinary Least Squares). Factors contributing to the econometric framework of demand function for electricity in Libya were explored. According to the model used in this study the average price of electricity and the population are significant determinants of electricity demand while the others are less.
The sixth chapter examined the effect of internal/external determinants of electricity projects in Libya. The seventh chapter provided a description of the proposed framework for electricity organisations in Libya. Chapter eight included a discussion of the results and presenting the limitations of the study. The chapter provided practical recommendations that can be adopted by the government and energy firms.
8.1 RESEARCH FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS
The most crucial factor that helps to resolve the greatest issues of an economy is resource allocation. It is believed that competitive market forces in an economy help to maximise the net social welfare. It is true that adequate social welfare can be attained in an economy only if the demand and supply for all the goods and services traded in the market are at the equilibrium. Thus, if the demand for electricity services in the market of Libya is sustained with sufficient supply, then it is obvious that its economy would move towards equilibrium or further growth. The total electricity production in Libya has almost doubled from 2000 to 2010. However, the fast growth rate of the country has significantly increased the demand for power that has now turned out as more than the quantity supplied. The supply of electricity of the country has proved to be less than its accumulated demand in the household and business sector.
The country had to compromise on the production of oil in some of its fields due to the lack of required electricity supply. However, it has been found that the demand for electricity in a nation substantially depends on its level of economic development. For example, a highly urbanised nation like, U.S., would require more electricity than a relatively less developed country such as, Greenland. Adequate electricity supply is the prerequisite for social and economic satisfaction in a nation. Thus, it is very crucial to understand the determinants that alter the supply and demand thresholds of electricity in Libya. It is noted that the level of Gross Domestic Product of the country has fallen from US $101.4 billion in 2010 to about US $78.63 billion in 2012 (CIA, 2013).
The country is still recorded to possess the highest per capita income in Africa, but the level of investment in the nation is low. Thus, the analysis of electricity demand in Libya is indispensable. The findings from research would assist in understanding different policies that must be undertaken to meet the needs of the society. As a fact, the primary underlying driving force of an economy is the progress of the energy sector. The researcher has appropriately figured the key determinants affecting the demand for electricity in Libya after analysing the data from 1980 to 2010. It is believed that the analysis made in the study would help to understand the rising demand for electricity in Libya and carve its path for long-term economic development (Numov, 2009).
The framework of the study has helped to throw light on the energy sector of the country. The researcher has successfully analysed the significant factors that determine the demand for electricity in the market of Libya. It also explains the tracking ability of the electricity demand model with the other economic models in Libya. The impact of the external and internal factors on the electricity projects of the country was also examined.
The qualitative context of the study is written on the basis of data and information collected from authentic secondary data sources. It has provided a strong base of theoretical concepts that has considerably helped in preparing the research. The quantitative analysis in the study has helped to generate a robust idea about the research topic. The empirical analysis of Ordinary Least Square regression test of cointegration has helped to pragmatically prove the theoretical perspectives discussed here. The tracking of the electricity model of Libya with the other models of the economy has been executed accurately with the help of Granger Causality test (Joyce, 2012).
The theoretical analysis of the study was verified with the help of the quantitative methods. The relevant data for the purpose of the analysis is a time series data for time dimensions between 1980 and 2010. The multi-co-linearity test in the analysis helped to understand the presence of correlated independent variables in the data. The most statistically significant variables that were found to be responsible for causing ninetynine per cent variations in the level of electricity demand of Libya are:
Average real price value of electricity;
The real value of the imported electrical appliance;
Gross Domestic Product;
Population of the country;
The changes in the level of temperature; and
The lagging value of electricity demand in Libya.
The regression analysis suggests that the real average price value of electricity in the country is inversely related to the demand for electricity, owing to the law of demand in the market. On the other hand, the factors such as, average real value of the electricity appliances, GDP and the population thresholds, are all positively related to the value of the electricity demand. A rise in the population in the country would obviously increase the level of electricity demand and the increase in the domestic income levels will also create a positive impact on the same. This is because with the rising level of domestic income in a nation, it’s per person purchasing power would increase, thereby heightening the demand for electricity by the citizens there.
Electricity is a nominal good which enjoys a strong negative price effect and positive income effect. It implies that the demand for the service reduces, when its price level in the market rises as the service does not fall in the category of necessities. On the contrary, the positive income effect clearly states that the rise in the level of income would increase the demand for electricity. However, it has been found that in Libya, the income and price elasticity of electricity demand is relatively inelastic in nature. This elucidates that at present the individuals of the country are consuming large quantities of electricity, as their living standards in the market have significantly improved over time (Tucker, 2010).
The bilateral causality established in the Granger Causality test suggests that the demand for electrical appliances in the country would increase with the rise in the value of imports of the same. It is also found that the rise in the level of population has a bilateral relationship with the level of electricity demand in the country. The most significant factors that were found to affect the demand of electricity in Libya were:
Average price of the electricity; and
Population.
The other factors that were included in the model were found to be less effective than the above two variables.
After obtaining the results from the population regression process, the researcher discussed the results of the regression in focus group interviews. There were four focus group interviews that were conducted, each with five participants, for two hours. The independent variables included in the model were found to be relevant by all the participants of the focus group interviews. However, all of them claimed that among the independent variables, population, average price of electricity and income were the most significant factors that could influence the changes in the level of electricity demand in the country. Moreover, every participant agreed that Libya’s electricity demand had been indeed soaring up significantly during the last three decades. All the participants suggested that a rise in the level of an individual income would increase their demand for electrical devices, thereby increasing the demand for electricity.
However, the participants claimed that there are three more independent factors that could affect the level of electricity demand in Libya. These were:
Urbanisation;
Industrialisation; and
Literacy rates.
It was claimed by the participants that a rise in the degree of urbanisation in the last three decades is highly responsible for the increase in electricity demand in Libya.
They claimed that an increase in the level of industrialisation in Libya is also responsible for the soaring demand for electricity. According to Burns (1997), the industries employ heavy machinery production processes that require a lot of electricity. It is obvious that a rise in the level of literacy would generate a skilled professional workforce. Rising skills of the individuals would increase their income and also, the demand for electricity.
However, in the four sessions of the focus group interviews, it was noted that the rise in the level of electricity demand in the market of Libya may have occurred due to the increase in the level of advertisements for the electrical appliances. The aggregate spending of the corporate companies on the various types of advertisement and promotional factors has increased. This has attracted the individuals of the country to create higher demand for various types of electrical appliances. Thus, the quantitative findings indicate that the average rise in price of electricity and population are the two factors that influence the demand for electricity in Libya.
In order to understand the impact of internal and external environment on the electricity projects in Libya (supply side), the researcher conducted ten interviews in the General Electricity Company of Libya (GECOL). The main problems estimated regarding the electricity projects of the country were:
The land area of the country is large compared to the population and a large proportion of individuals of the nation stay in the scattered rural areas. A huge number of projects are required to be constructed for satisfying the demand for the entire rural population; and
The government did not apply any regularly mechanism to control or sustain the demand for electricity in the country.
On the basis of the interview analysis, it was claimed that the internal determinants for electricity projects in the country were political effects and electricity demand. On the other hand, the external factors that affected the construction of the required electricity projects were recession, development of other infrastructure and oil prices. The questionnaire results showed that the development of other infrastructure was the most effective factor of the external determinants on the electricity projects in Libya. Moreover, the deregulation of the economy at the beginning of the nineties led to the development of the commercial sector, this means an increase in demand for electricity. However, the political turmoil in the country was responsible for making the nation unattractive to investors. It was found that the soaring oil prices in the market weakened the long-term construction plans of electricity projects. As observed from the reviewed literature the recessionary traces in the global economy have made the financial resources scarce in the country for investments to be made in the electricity projects (EIA, 2013).
The main outcome of the validation was that the proposed framework was found practical and provided a methodology for solutions that can be taken up by the electricity sector and the government to adopt regular mechanisms to deal with the consistent upsurge in the demand and provide the basis for stable supply of electricity. The participants stressed that the framework and its components were clearly understood and with a number of conditions and initiatives are conducive to provide the basis for stable supply of electricity to the citizens and their businesses. It was further suggested that the framework will provide the basis for projection of future electricity demand in Libya. The findings from the framework have confirmed that the general electricity company in Libya and the Libyan government should incorporate the actions proposed in the framework.. The key actions include:
Economic planning;
Socio-economic development policy;
Development of new power plants and expansion of the existing capacity; and
Improved development of other infrastructure.
The increased demand for electricity in Libya compels the government, the electricity company and the other sectors of the economy to come up with a sustainable framework to meet the energy demands of the country. While the company have the option of expanding the productivity of the current facilities to meet the electricity demands, it is only a short-term mitigation measure which cannot meet the expected demand. Building new power projects is the only long-term solution that will address the present and future energy needs in Libya.
8.2 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
A number of caveats need to be noted regarding the present study. Due to limitations in time, cost, political instability in the country and the lack of security, the entire analysis was only of the demand for electricity in Libya based on data collected from secondary sources and primary data resources. The ordinary least square method of regression used for the purpose of quantitative analysis, only included the factors related to the demand for electricity in Libya. It is worth noting that the research work did not include any quantitative analysis that comprised of factors related to the supply of electricity in the country. Such an analysis could have technically carved the ways to augment the supply of electricity. Therefore, the context of the research work is onesided that focuses primarily on the demand. Moreover, the inferred result from the context of the study would be more robust if the researcher could have conducted more focus groups and interviews.
It is worth noting that, the study used quantitative and qualitative methods to accomplish the main aim of the study, the econometric research approach aimed at exploring how and in what magnitude that price, income level, population, appliance imports, and temperature affects the demand for electricity in Libya, then the qualitative approach was used in the verification of the results of the econometric model.
However, this research experienced major limitations that were potential to challenging the reliability of the research findings. One of the major limitations was the use of a single approach to facilitate data collection and analysis to achieve the other objectives in the context of this study, the use of a qualitative research approach only was a major limitation.
As observed by Creswell (2003), studies that use a mixed methodology research are more reliable because they engage triangulation. Triangulation in this case is a comparison of research findings from two different approaches as used in data collection relating to an identified phenomenon. The use of a qualitative research approach only allowed for the presentation of research findings from a single perspective.
Another major limitation in a part of this study was the use of questionnaires in data collection. As noted by Creswell (2009), questionnaires are not appropriate in studies that require in-depth evaluation and explanation of a research phenomenon. The questionnaire method is more appropriate in studies that require a comparison and evaluation of relationships between the identified research variables. In this research, there was no need to develop a relationship between variables. The research approach aimed at exploring the effect of internal and external determinants of electricity projects in Libya. This was therefore a more explorative than descriptive study which is why the use of a questionnaire limited the in-depth evaluation of the phenomenon that has been examined.
Another limitation is that the study is also dependent on a small sample to collect data on the identified phenomenon. By using a census of 30 which includes head managers, managers, technicians, engineers, technicians and other staff members to collect data, the sample size was a major limitation. Given that the staff members of Libyan electricity company is composed of 37,092 employees (GECOL, 2010), and the supply electricity is a huge portion of these workers, taking into account only 30 representatives to provide data for this study was a major limitation. This is because the number 30 is not representative enough of the electricity across Libya
Conversely, the use of simple random sampling was also a limitation for this study. As noted by Creswell (2003), simple random sampling makes the assumption that everyone within the population has the knowledge of the research phenomenon. However, this research required individuals who only had knowledge about electricity in Libya. By using simple random sampling, the probability was that some participants could not have adequate knowledge of the phenomenon and thus were not qualified enough to provide reliable data, which meant that the data used from the sample representatives was limited.
Finally, a major limitation of the study was on the applicability of the research findings in other contexts. Given that the use and demand of electricity may vary from one region to another, the applicability of these findings to understand the limit the use of the applied knowledge in other contexts.
A major issue of this research was coined around how to choose the participants the researcher experienced when facilitating the study. It is evident that to access the 30 respondents for data collection was not an easy task. The use of interviews made it more complicated in facilitating and undertaking the study. It would have been more appropriate to use phone interviews in order to support a high level of convenience in data collection.
The data collected would not be highly reliable because these were only representatives from the company. In fact, a level of bias was experienced in the data collected because of the employees' sensitivity toward the topic. The employees' commitment to the company's success blurred their objectivity to provide reliable data. Instead, a preference for engaging the Libyan population, who are the consumers of electricity, would have been a better option. This way, the different perspectives on electricity demand in Libya would have been achieved. Additionally, the inclusion of another category of respondents would have been more appropriate because a larger sample would have been achieved. As noted among the limitations of the study, the small size of the sample challenged the reliability of the findings. Therefore, the need to include a larger and more representative sample was observed from the current study.
8.3 CONTRIBUTIONS TO RESEARCH
Along with the various practical implications, the research work has contributed a lot to the context of the existing literature. The study has helped to understand the precise nature of the energy sector in Libya. The holistic analysis of the study has helped to carve the strategic ways through which the growing demand for electricity in Libya can be sustained. The quantitative part of the study encouraged the method of choice in selecting the members for the interviews.
The research helps to analyse the importance of mixed economic norms in the current era. It indirectly explains that the long run growth of a nation can only be sustained by the joint efforts of the public and the private sectors. The powers and operations of the private organisations in an economy must be scrutinised and monitored by the government of the country. Thus, for sustaining the growing demand for electricity in Libya, policy makers in Libya should focus on various ways to enhance its number of electricity projects. In addition, the findings from the study will assist policy makers in Libya devise new ways to successfully increase the number of electricity projects. It is worth noting that the context of the study opens up new ways through which a country can foster its economic development with the essence of adequate power supply.
8.4 RECOMMENDATIONS
The two most significant factors to create maximum changes in the level of electricity demand in Libya are population and price. Reducing the level of population in a country is a far more elaborate and long process. However, the peaking demand for electricity in the market of Libya can be reduced by artificially manipulating its level of prices (increasing). It should be considered that this initiative would reduce the country’s overall level of social welfare. The soaring demand for electricity in the country can only be sustained with the help of adequate supply. By ignoring the internal political issues, the existing government and stakeholders should take measures to raise the number of the electricity projects in the country.
8.4.1 Recommendations to the Libyan Government
The government should ensure that economic planning and socio-economic development policy governing the electric sector and other sectors of the economy are always the result of the systematic evaluation and combination of the specific measures that take into account the factors affecting or associated with stakeholders.
There is the need to prioritise the construction programs (electricity projects) on the basis of benefits that can be derived from each project. It was found that a large proportion of individuals of the country live in the rural regions. The planning authorities should first execute the power generation projects that can provide services to the maximum number of individuals in the nation. Also, the country is trying to reduce its political problems. It is likely that with the economic development of a nation, the level of electricity or energy consumption would increase. At this juncture, adequate supply of electricity is the only method that can resolve the concerned issue. It should be analysed that in future, if the demand for electricity surpasses its supply for a prolonged period of time, then it would create severe upward pressure on the prices of electricity (Kumar, 2005).
Attracting foreign direct investments for new electricity projects in the country is necessary. Many emerging economies in the world like China and Russia are found to be largely interested in investing money in business segments of other economies. Libya should try to attract foreign investments from such nations to finance its power generation projects in its economy. Also, the government of Libya must try to enhance its level of domestic and foreign investments for electricity projects. Efficient allocation of the resources is a method which would increase the electricity supply in the country in future.
The government should also try to improve the infrastructural facilities in the country for the future as an improvement in its infrastructure would facilitate the construction of new and effective electricity projects.
8.4.2 Recommendations to the national General Electric Company of Libya
Allocating the required project resources efficiently is needed. The company should try to allocate labour, technology, capital and entrepreneurship resources efficiently while planning its electricity projects. This is the way in which the cost of operations of such projects would be increased and productivity from such projects would be enhanced.
The General Electric Company should disseminate the culture of rationalising the use of electricity and providing users of the electricity with information and procedures that help in the rationalisation of the use.
An effort can be undertaken by the electricity company to enhance its renewable sources for energy in the market.
Electricity in Libya should be generated from a diversified mix of sources. EIA estimates that Libya consumed almost 0.9 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) of energy in 2010, of which more than 70 per cent was from consumption of petroleum and petroleum products and almost all of the remainder was from natural gas. According to Saleh (2006), Libya has a large potential for production of renewable sources of energy, solar energy being one of them. Saleh (2006) noted that the country has potential to produce four times the amount of energy they produce using oil resources. As suggested by Saleh (1993), they need only 0.1 per cent of their landmass for solar energy, the country receives average sun duration of more than 3500 hours per year which shows the country's potential for solar energy production. In addition, the potential for wind energy, the average wind speed within the country at a 40 meter height is between 6- 7.5 m/s. That is enough wind power for electricity generation. Several locations, including a number along the coast, experience high wind speeds which last for long periods of time. If this wind energy could be harnessed not only could Libya meet its own demands for energy, but also a significant part of the world’s demands by exporting the electricity generated (Mills, 2008).
Also the geothermal energy is another small-scale growth area, but one which shows much promise. If new housing is built in such a way that it is not dependant on airconditioners for cooling then this would greatly reduce electricity consumption. This type of system has already been built and found extremely successful in Palestine, reducing home energy usage by as much as 70 per cent. The University of Madaba in For instance, Jordan is currently building the largest geothermal energy system in the Middle East, which will save 130,000 litres of diesel fuel per year (Helpman, 1998). It is a worthwhile recommendation from this study that will go a long way in helping boost electricity production (Helpman, 1998).
8.4.3 Recommendations to other sectors of the economy
To meet the requirements of growth and expansion in economic sectors, the future needs of the electric power required by the new projects in these economic sectors should be considered before starting the implementation of new projects.
Other sectors should use a selection of contemporary construction methods that will lead to energy saving.
8.4.4 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH
This study has achieved its aim and its objectives and the results and observations obtained from this research could be used as a base for further research. Several issues were raised. Some of these have been analysed and incorporated into the thesis. Others, however, could not be incorporated due to the study scope, time as well as other constraints. Certain aspects that were not covered in-depth have been recommended for further work that could be pursued. It is recommended that further work research be undertaken in the following areas:
This current study used a macroeconomic theory approach to examine and identify key determinants affecting the demand for electricity in the whole Libyan economy and there will be the need for further research to examine and identify key determinants affecting the electricity demand for each sector in the economy separately by using a microeconomic theory approach to provide further insight on the effect of sector-specific factors on electricity demand.
Future studies should expand the research by concentrating on the inclusion of more detailed variables, such as urbanisation, industrialisation and literacy rates, which have been implicitly mentioned but not overtly examined during the research, in relation to particular origins using both quantitative and qualitative research approaches. The structure of the proposed framework and its major components basically utilised the opinions and attitudes of experienced personnel. There is a need for further research in identifying the relationship among these components, the impact of such relations on overall general electric company performance and possibly the introduction of additional components.
The findings of the study reported that increasing the price of electricity is not the most effective tool to reduce electricity consumption in the Libyan economy. Therefore, future research should focus on proposing a framework for the General Electric Company of Libya on the possibility of implementing procedures that helps in the rationalisation of the use of electricity .
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