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The Demographic Profile of African Countries - United ...


The Demographic Profile of African Countries 

- United

March 2016


Printed in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia by the ECA Printing and Publishing Unit. ISO 14001:2004 certi ed.

Contents

Foreword v

Acknowledgements vi

Population growth vii

Population distribution vii

Executive summary vii

Total fertility rate viii

Teenage pregnancy viii

Infant and child mortality viii

Maternal mortality viii

Life expectancy ix

Population age structure ix

International migration and internally displaced persons ix

Challenges and implications x

Introduction 1

I: Data sources 3

II: Population size 4

III: Population growth 5

IV: Population distribution 7

V: Total fertility rate and teenage fertility 9

VI: Infant and child mortality rate 11

VII: Maternal mortality ratio 13

VIII: Life expectancy 14

IX: Disability 15

X: Population age structure 17

XI: International migration 20

XII: Implications for development and conclusions 22

References 25

Annexes 26


Executive summary

  Africa’s demographic dynamics are shaping its present and future development agenda. Perhaps the greatest and most fundamental challenge is to address the economic and social development issues of a continent that will be home to 1.5 billion people in the next 10 years. 

  The data used in the report are taken from World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp). Estimates of fertility, mortality and migration estimates are calculated and updated biennially by the United Nations Population Division. These demographic estimates are based on the most recently available data sources. Original data are collected from countries’ national sources such as vital registration statistics records, sample registration systems, surveillance systems, censuses and demographic surveys. The report highlights the current demographic scenario on the continent and goes on to suggest broader social and development policy implications.

Population growth 

   Global population has increased by 2.9 billion over the past 35 years, from 4.4 billion in 1980 to 7.3 billion in 2015. Although population growth rates have slowed, the world’s population is still growing by 81 million people each year, and Africa is contributing significantly to this phenomenon.

  Africa’s population has nearly trebled from its estimated 478 million in 1980 to the current estimate of close to 1.2 billion, and is projected to increase to 1.5 billion by 2025 and 2.4 billion by 2050.

  The top 10 countries that are contributing to the increase are Nigeria, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, the United Republic of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, the Sudan, South Africa and Algeria. Together, those 10 countries accounted for 61 per cent of Africa’s overall population increase during the period 1980-2015. 

  Annual population growth rate on the continent is very high, at 2.5 per cent over the period 1980-2015, and is projected to remain as high as 1.5 per cent for the next 10 years.

Population distribution 

   Urban population is currently estimated at 40 per cent, compared with 27 per cent in 1980. Despite that rapid increase and the fact that it is the fastest urbanizing region globally, Africa remains the least urbanized continent in the world. 

The most urbanized countries on the continent are Gabon, Libya, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Algeria, Cabo Verde, Tunisia, the Congo and South Africa. 

The average growth rate in the urban population stands at 3.7 per cent and is projected to remain as high as 2.6 per cent during the period 2025-2050.

Africa’s urban population is expected to increase by an additional 867 million over the next 35 years. By 2050, Africa will be majority urban, with nearly 56 per cent of its population living in urban areas. 

The island States of Mauritius, the Comoros, Seychelles, and Sao Tome and Principe are among the most densely populated countries of the continent. On the mainland, however, Rwanda, Burundi, Nigeria, the Gambia, Uganda and Malawi have the highest population densities.

Total fertility rate 

  Over the past 30 years, the average total fertility rate in all regions of Africa has decreased by about two, a trend that is projected to continue. The current rate is estimated to be 4.7 children per woman.

  The pace and magnitude of the decrease in fertility rate vary considerably across the continent. While some countries, including Mauritius, Seychelles, Tunisia, South Africa and Algeria, have rates, others, such as the Niger, Mali, Somalia, Chad, Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Uganda, the Gambia and Nigeria, continue to have relatively high rates. 

Teenage pregnancy 

  Children having children continues to be a sad reality in Africa. The percentage of girls aged 15-19 years who become pregnant or have their first child is highest in the Niger (40.4 per cent), followed by Mozambique (37.5 per cent). Other countries with very high teenage pregnancy rates include Chad, the Central African Republic, Guinea, the Congo, Madagascar and Nigeria. Teenage pregnancy is lowest in the Northern Africa subregion, especially in Tunisia (2.9 per cent). 

Infant and child mortality 

  Africa has made substantial gains in reducing the infant mortality rate although much remains to be achieved. During the period 1980-1985, more than half of all African countries recorded a rate of more than 100 infant deaths per 1,000 live births. However, by the period 2010-2015, that rate had fallen to below 100 in all African countries. Angola (96), Chad (96) and Sierra Leone (94) currently have the highest infant mortality rates on the continent. The countries with the highest overall highest under-five mortality rate are South Sudan, Mali, Sierra Leone, Angola, Guinea-Bissau, Chad, Somalia, Nigeria, Burundi and the Central African Republic.

Maternal mortality 

  Although no region in the world achieved Goal 5A of the Millennium Development Goals, to reduce the maternal mortality ratio by 75 per cent, Africa succeeded in reducing its maternal mortality ratio by half between 1990 and 2015. Despite that progress, only a few countries achieved Goal 5A. They include Sierra Leone, the Central African Republic, Chad, Nigeria, South Sudan, Somalia, Liberia, Burundi, the Gambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Life expectancy .

  Life expectancy at birth on the continent has generally improved significantly, from 50 years during the period 1980-1985 to close to 60 years during the period 2010-2015, an improvement that is expected to continue and reach 70 years by 2050. The countries with the highest gains during the period 1980-2015 were Eritrea, Ethiopia, Algeria, Morocco and Niger. Those with the highest net decrease in life expectancy over the same period were Swaziland, Lesotho, Zimbabwe, Côte d’Ivoire and South Africa, largely as a result of HIV and AIDS.

Population age structure 

Africa has a young age structure, with about two fifths of its population in the 0-14 age bracket and nearly one fifth (19 per cent) in the 15-24 age bracket.

  Children aged 0-14 years made up nearly 45 per cent of Africa’s population in 1980. Although that figure fell to 41 per cent by 2015, there has been an increase in absolute numbers from 213.5 million in 1980 to 473.7 million in 2015. 

   The active working age population (25-64 years) has grown more rapidly than any other age group, from 123.7 million (33.3 per cent) in 1980 to 425.7 million (36.2 per cent) in 2015. 

  The population of older persons (65 years and above) has also increased from nearly 15 million in 1980 to over 40 million in 2015. While that population still forms the smallest proportion of the total population (3.1 per cent in 1980 and 3.5 per cent in 2015), it is expected to reach 6 per cent by 2050.

International migration and internally displaced persons 

 The stock of migrants in Africa is relatively small compared to other regions of the world. Net migration on the continent reflected a loss of 2.1 million people in 1980, a figure that increased to 2.9 million persons in 2015 but is expected to slow down to 2.3 million persons by 2050.

  African countries are concurrently countries of origin, transit and destination. 

 The most prominent form of migration in the region is labour migration, followed by forced migration, in addition to irregular and transit migration. 

   In 2015, there were about 14 million persons of concern (refugees and internally displaced persons who needed assistance), the majority of whom were situated in Eastern and the Horn of Africa (7.3 million), followed by the Central Africa region (4.7 million). Most internally displaced persons and people with concern were in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, followed by the Sudan and South Sudan, respectively.

Challenges and implications 

  The population of Africa is currently young. Lower fertility rates will lead to reductions in the overall dependency ratio, mainly as a result of major declines in child dependency. That will create a demographic window of opportunity in several countries by enhancing the possibility for increased savings and investment in economic and social development by reducing the pressure to support young dependents and older persons.

  Adequate economic and social policies will have to be developed and underlined to harness the demographic dividend. The youth bulge in Africa’s population has far-reaching implications for the socioeconomic development of the continent.

   Population increase in urban areas is expected to continue in the near future with significant implications for national development planning.

   Urban population concentrations allow for the mobilization of resources, economic agglomeration and technological innovation and specialization across a range of areas, including transportation, education and health. Urban-related industry clusters can enhance domestic productivity and raise export competences, thereby enabling growth and transformation. HowThe bulk of migratory movements on the continent is intraAfrican. Migration, both internally and internationally is expected to surge in the future due to improved regional integration, transportation, infrastructure, trade, communications and social networks. ever, Governments need to adequately plan for increased urbanization, especially in the supply of housing, infrastructure — notably power, water and sanitation — and services, including controlling pollution and crime.
 
   Regional coordination on international migration issues is of particular importance in order to enhance regional complementarities, harness the positive development implications of international migration and reduce negative impacts. The situation can be addressed by increasing support for a regional platform aimed at facilitating dialogue, coordination and cooperation between source and destination countries in the region on pertinent migration issues to maximize the benefits for all parties involved. It is also important in that regard to build the capacity of African countries to mainstream migration issues into the national development plans and strategies. 

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