Building a GIS Model to Assess
Agritourism Potential
By
Brian Baskerville
A THESIS
Presented to the Faculty of
The Graduate College at the University of Nebraska
In Partial Fulfilment of Requirements
For the Degree of Master of Arts
Major: Geography
Under the Supervision of Professor James W. Merchant
Lincoln, Nebraska
December, 2013
Table of Contents
Acknowledgments..........................................................................................................i
List of Tables ................................................................................................................. v
List of Figures.................................................................................................................vi
Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................. 1
Introduction.................................................................................................................. 1
Background.................................................................................................................. 2
Defining Agritourism................................................................................................... 3
Farm-specific Versus Location-based Factors............................................................. 4
Goals of this Research ................................................................................................. 5
Study Area ................................................................................................................... 5
Summary of Methods................................................................................................... 6
Implications of the Research........................................................................................ 9
Thesis Structure ........................................................................................................... 9
Chapter 2: Background............................................................................................... 10
Introduction................................................................................................................ 10
Goals of this Chapter ................................................................................................. 10
Natural Amenities...................................................................................................... 11
Tourism Infrastructure ............................................................................................... 16
Agritourism Potential................................................................................................. 20
Geographic Information Systems in Suitability Modeling for Tourism.................... 25
Summary and Conclusion.......................................................................................... 34
iii
Chapter 3: Methodology ............................................................................................ 36
Introduction ............................................................................................................... 36
Study Area ................................................................................................................. 37
Physiography........................................................................................................ 38
Climate and Vegetation........................................................................................ 39
Population and Economy ..................................................................................... 40
Recreation and Current Agritourism Status......................................................... 42
Agritourism Database Development.......................................................................... 42
Location-based Characteristics of Successful Agritourism Operations............... 43
Geocoding Successful Agritourism Operations................................................... 44
Identifying Location-based Variables.................................................................. 46
Generating Location-based Data................................................................................ 48
Data Analysis and Interpretation .............................................................................. 56
Answering Research Question One ..................................................................... 56
Answering Research Question Two..................................................................... 59
Answering Research Question Three................................................................... 61
Summary and Conclusion ......................................................................................... 62
Chapter 4: Results and Interpretation ........................................................................ 64
Introduction ............................................................................................................... 64
Identifying Location-based Variables for Agritourism Suitability ........................... 64
Regression Analysis ............................................................................................ 64
Histogram Analysis.............................................................................................. 66
Identifying Differences in Variables for Type I and Type II Operations .................. 74
iv
Incorporating the Location-based Variables into a GIS Model................................. 75
Results........................................................................................................................ 84
Research Questions Asked and Key Findings Revealed ..................................... 84
Discussion of Findings......................................................................................... 84
Summary and Conclusion.......................................................................................... 87
Chapter 5: Conclusion .................................................................................................. 88
Thesis Summary......................................................................................................... 88
Implications of the Research ..................................................................................... 90
Limitations................................................................................................................. 90
Suggestions for Future Research ............................................................................... 91
Chapter 5: Conclusion
Thesis Summary
Rural areas of the world are turning to tourism to help diversify and re-invigorate their local economies. Where tourism is integrated with the agricultural landscape an entirely new industry is created – agritourism. As an industry, agritourism relies on several factors for its success as an economic development strategy. These factors are often categorized as: 1) farm-specific factors such as an operator’s net worth or personality and 2) location-based factors such as proximity to urban areas or natural amenities.
Until now the literature has focused mostly on the farm-specific factors of agritourism and relatively little research has been conducted on the location-based characteristics of the industry. A few studies have attempted to explore the location-based characteristics of agritourism in efforts to predict where agritourism has potential to succeed. Most of these studies, however, shared two major shortcomings: 1) a reliance on only one location-based variable (e.g., population) while generally ignoring the contributions of other variables and 2) using data gathered from surveys of tourists which only indicate what people would like in a landscape instead of what actually exists on the landscape.
This thesis attempted to address both of these issues. First, statistical analysis was employed to identify four critical location-based variables (from an initial 11) that appear to influence success of agritourism in Nebraska. These factors were found to be proximity to rivers, proximity to roads, vegetative variety, and non-farm population representing three broad categories known to be critical for tourism potential: natural amenities, tourism infrastructure, and urban influence. The four factors were then integrated in a GIS, and a linear combination approach was used to generate an index of agritourism potential in Nebraska and a set of maps portraying the factors and the index. Unlike previous GIS-based models of agritourism potential, the model employed in this thesis included more than one location-based variable. This modeling approach is, thus, believed to be more robust than previous approaches used for assessing agritourism potential. Second, agritourism potential was determined by using the location-based factors of existing ‘successful’ operations. Previous studies, by using subjective survey criteria, were required to validate their models to determine if their findings were consistent with what existed on the landscape. This thesis, by contrast, developed a more objective model based on the characteristics of existing ‘successful’ agritourism operations.
A qualitative assessment of the model indicated that it performed reasonably well (Figure 4.14). This is to be expected given that ‘successful’ agritourism operations were used to derive the final products. It appears, however, that the model did a better job in predicting the Type I operations over the Type II operations. This is most likely due to Type I operations being more highly concentrated in histogram intervals near major roads, rivers, and in only five non-farm histogram intervals. The Type II operations, on the other hand, were generally not as clustered as the Type I operations and were observed to be spread over a much larger area, making it more difficult to identify areas of potential. Type II operations tend to encompass large tracts of land and may actually benefit from ‘remoteness.’ Thus they are not as constrained by location as Type I operations.
Implications of the Research
The maps and data developed for this research can be used by farmers, ranchers, and rural community development initiatives for two primary purposes. First, for individuals thinking about starting an operation and those considering agritourism for rural development, assessing the level of potential for this industry in their regions can serve as a decision-support guide. Second, organizations such as the Nebraska Tourism Commission can use the maps of agritourism potential to promote this industry and perhaps make strategic investments in tourism infrastructure (i.e., area attractions, hotels, and restaurants).
It should be noted, however, that the maps of agritourism potential are not meant to guarantee the success of an agritourism enterprise. Rather, they should be used as a decision-support tool. While the scale and resolution of the final products make them suited for regional assessment, they should not be used when making site-specific (i.e., farm-specific) decisions. Further, the location-based products derived for this thesis should be used as a complement to a suite of data and information regarding tourism and development in rural areas. The location-based characteristics of agritourism potential are only one half of the formula and they need to be evaluated carefully along with individual, farm-specific, factors before any decisions or investments are made on behalf of a farmer or development organization.
Limitations
Although this thesis advanced research on agritourism, some limitations deserve consideration. First, the research on this relatively new industry is still only exploratory and this thesis is consistent with that characterization - we have only scratched the surface of what we need to know about agritourism in order to be able to create predictive models. Second, the data are still limited. The database developed for this thesis was relatively comprehensive, but the analysis was carried out at a rather coarse resolution and it lacked any information drawn from the owners and operators of the successful agritourism enterprises currently in existence. This makes it impossible to explore the industry from a farm-specific point of view. Third, more complex statistical modeling (e.g., multivariate regression) is necessary for more accurate predictions of agritourism potential. Note that in this thesis, all of the variables included in the final model were assumed to be of equal importance; this may be an unwarranted assumption. Establishing a means to guide differential weighting of the factors is required in future research. Due to the nature of agritourism, a good dependent variable could not be identified in order to carry out multivariate regression in this thesis. Thus, simpler methods (i.e., bivariate regression and histogram modeling) were utilized.
Suggestions for Future Research
The research reported in this thesis has given rise to more ideas and questions for further inquiry. First, future research should be focused on the identification of an acceptable measure for agritourism success. A method for obtaining such a measure could be through a comprehensive survey of existing agritourism operators where each would indicate his/her opinion of their operation’s success on a five point Likert Scale. Obtaining this measure would allow for more complex statistical investigations such as multivariate regression. For example, it could act as the dependent variable in a multivariate regression analysis so that weights could be assigned to different variables. Second, validation of the final model outside of Nebraska is essential to the continued refinement of an agritourism potential model acceptable nation-wide. What is important for tourism in one region may or may not be acceptable in another and agritourism is no exception.
Figure 1.1: Successful agritourism operations in Nebraska. Source - Author.
Full Text
ليست هناك تعليقات:
إرسال تعليق