أداء الصادرات الفلسطينية وأﺜرﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ النمو اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي
دراﺴﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ للفترة ( 1994 – 2011 )
Palestinian Exports Performance and Its Impact on Economic Growth: An Econometric Study During The Period (1994 - 2011)
ﻋﻤر ﻤﺤﻤود أﺒوﻋﻴدة
oabueideh@qou.edu
ﻜﻠﻴﺔ العلوم اﻹدارﻴﺔ واﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻴﺔ
ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ القدس المفتوحة
ﻓرع طولكرم - ﻓﻠﺴطﻴن
ﻫدف البحث إلى دراﺴﺔ أداء الصادرات الفلسطينية وأﺜرﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ النمو اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﻤن ﺨﻼل اﺨﺘﺒﺎر العلاﻗﺔ ﺒﻴن الصادرات والنمو اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي وﺘﺤدﻴد العلاﻗﺔ ﺒﻴن التطور الهيكلي ﻠلصناﻋﺔ التحوﻴﻠﻴﺔ وأﺜرﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ الصادرات والنمو اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي الفلسطيني . اﺴﺘﺨدم الباﺤث النموذج القياﺴﻲ لتحدﻴد ﻫذﻩ العلاﻗﺎت وأﺜرﻫﺎ، ﺤﻴث ﺒﻴﻨت النتاﺌﺞ القياﺴﻴﺔ أن ﻫﻨﺎك أﺜر إﻴﺠﺎﺒﻲ لنمو الصادرات الفلسطينية ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻤو الناﺘﺞ المحلي اﻹﺠﻤﺎلي (GDP)،وأن ﻨﻤو ﻗطﺎع الصناﻋﺔ التحوﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻜﺄﺤد ﻤظﺎﻫر التغير الهيكلي له أﺜر ﻫﺎم وواﻀﺢ ﻓﻲ الصادرات (RX) ،أﻤﺎ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﺨص ﻨﻤو العمالة وأﺜرﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻤو الصادرات والناﺘﺞ المحلي اﻹﺠﻤﺎلي ﻓﻜﺎﻨت النتاﺌﺞ ﻤﺘﻀﺎرﺒﺔ ﺤﻴث ﻜﺎﻨت إﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎلة الصادرات والصناﻋﺎت التحوﻴﻠﻴﺔ وﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎلة النمو اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺒﺸﻜل ﻋﺎم . وﻤن أﻫم التوﺼﻴﺎت التي ﺘم اﻗﺘراﺤﻬﺎ ﻀرورة ﺘﺒﻨﻲ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺘﺸﺠﻴﻊ الصادرات وذلك ﻤن ﺨﻼل ﺘوﺠﻴﻪ الموارد اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻴﺔ ﻹﻗﺎﻤﺔ الصناﻋﺎت اﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ القادرة ﻋﻠﻰ الدﺨول إلى اﻷﺴواق الخارﺠﻴﺔ، وﻜذلك زﻴﺎدة اﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎم والترﻜﻴز ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗطﺎع الصناﻋﺎت التحوﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻤن أﺠل الوﺼول إلى إﻴﺠﺎد ﻗﺎﻋدة إﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ والعمل ﻋﻠﻰ إﻴﺠﺎد ﺤﻠول للمشاﻜل التي ﻴوﺠﻬﻬﺎ ﻫذا القاع ،ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﺠب العمل ﻋﻠﻰ إﻋﺎدة ﻫﻴﻜﻠﺔ ﺴوق العمل الفلسطيني ﻤن ﺨﻼل إﻋداد القوى البشرﻴﺔ وﺘدرﻴﺒﻬﺎ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻴؤدي إلى رﻓﻊ الكفاءة اﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ لها .
Abstract:
The research aimed to study the performance of Palestinian exports and its impact on economic growth and to identify the relationship between exports and economic growth, it has also tried to determine the relationship between the structural development of the manufacturer industrial sector and exports growth on the one hand and economic growth on the other hand. An Econometric model has been adopted in order to reach such objectives, the empirical results of the model revealed a positive impact of Palestinian exports on the growth of (GDP).The results also showed a significant and clear effect of the structural change of the Page 2manufacturer industrial sector on the growth of exports. As far as for the growth of labour force of the manufacturer industrial sector is concerned, the results were quite unclear, the testified data showed a positive effect of the growth of labour force in case of both exports and manufacturer industrial growth, and a negative effect in case of (GDP) growth. In the light of the above results the main recommendations of the research are; an export- led growth policy should be adopted in order to maximize the economic benefit of the exports by establishing a productive manufacturing industrial base that is capable of entering the foreign markets. More policy focus must be followed in order to establish a solid and productive manufacturing sector and find solutions to the problems that stand in the way of developing this sector. Finally, the labour market should be restructured by development of manpower and training programmes in order to increase the productivity and efficiency of the labour force in the manufacturing sector .
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