Understanding Spatial Patterns
of Urban Crime in a Developing
Country
Faisal Umar
Department of Geography
University College London
Thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements of
Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.)
Supervisors
Dr James A. Cheshire
Prof. Shane D. Johnson
April 2017
Abstract
Research into spatial patterns of urban crime is not new and the findings of such studies have consistently demonstrated that crime is spatially concentrated. Moreover, the uneven distribution of offences, particularly in the case of property crime (e.g. burglary), is typically found to be correlated with characteristics of both the social and built environment. However, most of the published research to date has been focused on Euro–America cities – little is known about the spatial patterns of urban crime in developing countries such as Nigeria. Consequently, it is unclear if theories derived to explain spatial patterns of urban crime in Euro–American cities have utility for explaining those in developing countries. This research attempts to address this gap.
Primary data were collected using two methods. First, a block environmental inventory (BEI) exercise was conducted to collect data on all 13,687 properties (and the streets on which they were located) in a study area within the city of Kaduna – Nigeria. Second, a crime victimisation survey was conducted for a sample of about one in four properties (N=3,294). The key question this thesis will address is how well can mainstream Euro–American theories of urban crime explain the spatial distribution of crime in the context of developing countries? Specifically, hypotheses were tested regarding (a) whether the ―law of crime concentration at place‖ applies in the context of Nigeria and (b) the utility of the two main theoretical perspectives in environmental criminology, opportunity and social disorganisation, in explaining variations in the rates of urban crime. The results are mixed – supporting premise of such theories in some cases but not in others.
Dissemination of Research Findings
Book Chapter
The following publication is produced from the research findings contained in this thesis:
F. Umar, S. D. Johnson, and J. A. Cheshire, (2017) Testing Theories of Social Disorganization in Nigeria. In G. Bruinsma and S. D. Johnson (eds.), Oxford Handbook of Environmental Criminology, (In press). [Chapters 5 in this thesis].
Conference Presentations and Proceedings
The following conference presentations are based on the research findings contained in this thesis:
F. Umar, S. D. Johnson, and J. A. Cheshire, (2016) The Spatial Pattern of Urban Crime – An Insight from Nigeria, Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis (ECCA) Conference, 6th – 8th January, 2016, Mahabalipuram, Chennai – India.
F. Umar, S. D. Johnson, and J. A. Cheshire, (2015) Crime and Place: Perspectives from a developing country, The 71st Annual Meeting of American Society of Criminology, 18th – 21st November, 2015, Washington DC, USA.
F. Umar, S. D. Johnson, and J. A. Cheshire, (2015) Environmental Criminology: Perspectives from a developing country, The Stockholm Criminology Symposium, 8th – 10th June, 2015,
Stockholm – Sweden
F. Umar, J. A. Cheshire, and S. D. Johnson, (2015) Street-Level Crime Mapping in a Developing Country: Insights from Nigeria, The Association of American Geographers AGM 2015, 21st – 25th April, 2015, Chicago, USA.
F. Umar, J. A. Cheshire, and S. D. Johnson, (2015) Understanding the spatial pattern of urban crime: a developing country‘s perspective, the 23rd Conference on GIS Research UK, 15th – 17th April, 2015, University of Leeds, Leeds - UK.
F. Umar, (2014) Mapping property crime and demographic factors – A developing country perspective, The 22nd Annual Postgraduate Population Studies (PopFest) Conference, 4th – 6th August, UCL, London, UK.
F. Umar, J. A. Cheshire, and S. D. Johnson, (2013) Contextual Differences and the Spatial Pattern of Urban Crime, RGS-IBG Annual International Conference, New geographical frontiers, 28th – 30th August, London, UK.
Table of Contents
Declaration 1
Dedication 2
Acknowledgement 3
Abstract 4
Dissemination of Research Findings 5
Table of Contents 7
List of Tables 12
List of Figures 14
List of Acronyms 15
Chapter 1 – Introduction 17
1.1 Thesis Structure 20
Chapter 2: Theoretical Framework 20
Chapter 3: Data and Methods 21
Chapter 4: Crime Concentration at Places 22
Chapter 5: Testing Theories of Social Disorganisation in Nigeria 23
Chapter 6: Opportunity Theories and the Risk of Victimisation 24
Chapter 7: General Discussion and Conclusion 25
Chapter 2 – Theoretical Framework 26
2.1 Crime and the Urban Environment 29
2.2 Social Disorganisation Theory 31
2.3 Opportunity Theories 36
Rational Choice Perspective 39
Routine Activity Theory 42
Crime Pattern Theory 48
2.4 Crime Control and Prevention 52
Crime Prevention through Environmental Design 53
Situational Crime Prevention 58
Crime Displacement and Diffusion of Crime Control Benefit 62
2.5 Conclusion 66
Chapter 3 – Data and Methods 70
3.1 Focus of the Study 71
Nigeria 71
Policing and Crime Trends in Nigeria 72
Kaduna Metropolis 74
The Study Site – Badarawa–Malali Urban District 76
Why Badarawa – Malali District? 77
3.2 The Search for Data 79
Crime Data 80
Socio–demographic Data 84
Spatial Data 87
3.3 Data Collection 89
Recruitment of Enumerators 90
Fieldwork Implementation Strategies 93
Pilot survey 96
3.4 Fieldwork and Summary of Data 99
Field Mapping 100
Block Environmental Inventory (BEI) 101
The content and summary of the BEI 103
Household and Crime Victimisation Survey 112
Sampling 113
Content of Questionnaire and Data Summary 114
3.5 Fieldwork Validation 131
3.6 Final Reflections 135
Chapter 4 – Crime Concentration at Places 141
4.1 Concentration of crime at places 144
4.2 Geographic units of analyses in spatial criminology 150
4.3 Data and spatial aggregation 155
Street Segments 157
Neighbourhoods 158
4.4 Result 162
Concentration of crime at household level 162
Nearest Neighbour Analysis 167
Patterns of Crime Concentration at Spatial Aggregate Units 173
Concentration at the Street Segment 173
Concentration at the Neighbourhood level 175
Summary of concentration 176
Testing the degree to which crime concentrates 177
Testing whether clustering is more than chance expectation 181
Testing the importance of micro–level of place 185
4.5 Discussion 187
Chapter 5 – Testing Social Disorganization Theory in Nigeria 193
5.1 Theories of Social Disorganization 195
Components of Social Disorganization Theory 197
Socio–economic Status (SES) 197
Ethnic Heterogeneity 200
Residential Mobility/Stability 202
Urbanization 204
Family disruption 205
Units of Analysis in Social Disorganization Theory 207
5.2 Measurement of Variables 209
Dependent Variables 209
Independent Variables 2010
5.3 Results 214
Domestic Theft 217
Breaking and Entering 218
5.3 Discussion 220
Chapter 6 – Opportunity Theories and the Risk of Victimisation 226
6.1 Components of Opportunity Theories 229
Proximity to crime 231
Exposure to crime 235
Target attractiveness 241
Guardianship 244
6.2 Measurement of variables 250
Dependent Variables 250
Independent Variables 250
6.3 Results 255
Domestic Theft 258
Breaking & Entering 260
6.4 Discussion 262
Chapter 7 – General Discussion and Conclusion 270
7.1 Summary of Findings 271
Case study 1: Crime Concentration at Places 272
Case study: Testing Theories of Social Disorganisation in Nigeria 274
Case study 3: Opportunity Theories and the Risk of Victimisation 276
7.2 Limitations of the research 278
7.3 Implication for Crime Prevention 280
7.4 Future Work 281
7.5 Thesis Conclusion 284
References 285
Appendix A: Block Environmental Inventory (BEI) Form 309
Appendix B: Household and Crime Victimisation Survey Questionnaire 310
Chapter 1
Introduction
Research concerned with spatial patterns of urban crime has consistently demonstrated that it is spatially concentrated. Moreover, the uneven distribution of offences, particularly in the case of property crime (e.g. burglary), is typically found to be correlated with characteristics of both the social and built environment. Theoretical explanations as to why such patterns emerge have evolved along a number of research themes, but of interest to this thesis is the perspective of environmental criminology. This perspective focuses on explaining crime as an event in which its occurrence is influenced by certain situations (see: Wortley and Mazerolle, 2008).
In the last three to four decades, the theoretical frameworks of environmental criminology have guided a substantial volume of research concerned with spatial patterns of urban crime. However, most of the published research to date has focused on crime in Euro– America cities – cities in Western Europe and North America – little is known about the spatial patterns of urban crime in the developing world, particularly countries in sub–Saharan Africa such as Nigeria. In fact, I am aware of no study that has examined spatial patterns of urban crime in Nigeria from the perspectives of environmental criminology. Consequently, it is unclear if the theories derived to explain spatial patterns of urban crime in Euro–American cities have utility for explaining those in developing countries such as Nigeria. This thesis attempts to address this gap by asking:
How well can mainstream Euro–American theories of urban crime explain the spatial distribution of crime in the context of Nigeria?
To address this question, micro–level (primary) data were collected in a study area within the city of Kaduna – Nigeria. The data collection exercise, as will be discussed in Chapter 3, was extensive and was intentionally designed to generate more data than would be required to undertake this PhD project. There were two reasons for this. First, this ensured that no additional fieldwork would be required in the event of unforeseen changes to the initial idea of the PhD project. The reason for this is twofold – one concerns the (limited) funding available for this PhD project, while the other concerns the distance to the study site (London – Kaduna) which would not permit instant or regular site visits. Second, given that this was the first environmental criminology study of which I am aware that has involved the collection of micro–level primary data on crime in Nigeria, the intention was to maximise the value of the exercise. Therefore, it should be noted at this point that the analyses presented in this thesis do not exhaust the possibilities that the data afford and that future work is planned to use the available data.
The cross–cultural application of Euro–American theories of crime provides an opportunity to test their applicability beyond the context in which they have typically been applied. In contrast to cities in Western Europe and North America, urban areas in contexts such as Nigeria often develop with little or no centralized planning (unregulated development) and may have features that are far less prevalent or even non–existent in typical Euro–American cities. Additionally, the socio–cultural settings in Nigeria differ greatly from Western Europe and North America. These characteristics, combined with extremely sparse spatially referenced crime and population datasets, make for a challenging environment in which to operationalize the frameworks of the environmental criminology perspective.
In pursuit of the research goal, patterns for two property–based crimes – breaking and entering (B&E) and domestic theft – were analysed in three empirical studies. Both crime types are acts of stealing from a household but B&E requires forceful entry while domestic theft does not. The overarching aims of the thesis were to test (a) whether the ―law of crime concentration at place‖ (Weisburd, 2015) applies in the context of Nigeria and (b) the utility of the two main theoretical perspectives in environmental criminology, opportunity theories (Cohen and Felson, 1979; Brantingham and Brantingham, 1981; Clarke and Cornish, 1985) and social disorganisation theories (Shaw and McKay, 1942; Sampson and Groves, 1989), in explaining variations in the rates of urban crime.
1.1 Thesis Structure
Chapter 2: Theoretical Framework
This chapter sets the theoretical context for the empirical analyses to follow. Specifically, two groups of theories are reviewed – the social disorganisation and opportunity theories. Conceptually, the former is concerned with how residents of a neighbourhood organize themselves to maintain order in their community while the latter is focused on physical environmental settings and situations that create criminal opportunity structures that facilitate the interaction between offenders and potential targets. The aim is to provide a broad review of the theoretical framework to which these theories contribute, and to provide a clear understanding of how they have informed prior studies of urban crime. This will help situate the work reported in this thesis in the broader literature and inform the hypotheses formulated and tested in subsequent chapters.
Chapter 3:
Data and Methods This chapter presents the primary data collection methodologies utilised in the substantive analysis sections of the thesis. To provide a broader context regarding the study area, the chapter begins with a brief description of the country Nigeria and the city of Kaduna before proceeding to why the study site, Badarawa–Malali urban district, was selected for this PhD project. This is followed by a discussion on the availability (or rather lack) of appropriate data that are of interest to this research and a reflection on the initial ideas that were conceived at the onset of the project regarding data collection. I then describe the data collection methodologies – a field mapping exercise, a block environmental inventory (BEI), and a household and crime victimisation survey. The fieldwork associated with each approach, as well as, a summary of the data that were collected, is also provided. The chapter concludes with a reflection on the lessons learnt regarding the processes involved in the data collection exercises.
Chapter 4:
Crime Concentration at Places Chapter 4 focuses on testing whether the law of crime concentration at places (Weisburd, 2015) applies in the context of Nigeria. The law states that ―for a defined measure of crime at a specific microgeographic unit, the concentration of crime will fall within a narrow bandwidth of percentages for a defined cumulative proportion of crime‖ (p.138). Using data from the BEI and crime victimisation surveys, the distribution of crimes at individual households, street segments and neighbourhoods are analysed. At the household level, hypotheses are tested regarding whether crime is spatially clustered more than would be expected by chance. Further hypotheses are tested regarding whether crime concentrates at different spatial scales (street segments and neighbourhoods), and if such clustering reflects anything beyond the pattern observed at lower levels of resolution (e.g. the household or point level). The findings are presented and discussed against the backdrop of the existing literature on the concentration of crime at places.
Chapter 5:
Testing Theories of Social Disorganisation in Nigeria1 In this chapter, the social disorganization approach to explaining variation in area level rates of crime is applied in the context of Nigeria. Socio–cultural differences between settings of Nigeria and Euro–American countries are considered in terms of the likely utility of such theories and how they might be tested. The chapter begins by recapitulating the premise of social disorganization theory and the lack of research in the developing world. This is followed by a review of the different components of social disorganization theory, the mechanisms through which they are believed to operate, how they have been estimated in previous studies, and whether they are meaningful in the context of Nigeria. A brief description of the data and the geographical units of analysis used in this chapter are then presented. What follows is an empirical test of social disorganization theory using the primary data collected in Nigeria. The final section discusses the challenges associated with conducting such research in developing countries, the findings, and their implications for criminological understanding.
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1 This chapter has been published in the Oxford Handbook of Environmental Criminology in collaboration with Shane D. Johnson and James A. Cheshire. Please see Section: Dissemination of Research Findings
Chapter 6: Opportunity Theories and the Risk of Victimisation
Considering the frameworks of opportunity theories, this chapter examines the variation in the risk of victimisation across individual households. Specifically, the structural choice approach (Miethe and Meier, 1990) is employed in the examination of various situational aspects that influence the crime opportunity structure. The chapter is structured in a format similar to Chapter 5. It begins with a brief discussion of opportunity theories of crime – Routine Activity Theory (Cohen and Felson, 1979), Crime Pattern Theory (Brantingham and Brantingham, 1981) and the Rational Choice Perspective (Clarke and Cornish, 1985). This is followed by a discussion of four situational aspects that are believed to influence crime opportunity structure – the proximity to crime, exposure to crime, target attractiveness and guardianship – the mechanisms through which they are assumed to operate, and how they were being estimated in prior studies. Taking into account the local conditions of the study settings, the section that follows describes how each of the variables considered in the analyses were measured and which component of the opportunity structure for crime they were intended to estimate. The findings are presented and discussed against the backdrop of the existing literature and what such findings mean for future research.
Chapter 7: General Discussion and Conclusion
A detailed discussion is provided at the end of each empirical chapter. The aim of this final chapter is to thus draw together all of the findings and to discuss what they mean for theory and crime prevention and control. It begins by summarising the findings from each case study and evaluates the extent to which Euro–American theories can explain patterns of urban crime in Nigeria. The implication of each finding to theory and practice is discussed followed by a discussion of the limitations of the research and avenues for future work.
7.4 Thesis Conclusion
This thesis sought to address a key research question regarding whether theories developed to explain patterns of crime in Euro– American settings have any utility for explaining patterns in other settings, specifically Nigeria. Using the frameworks of the environmental criminology perspective in particular, this thesis has provided evidence to suggest that, to an extent, patterns of crime in Kaduna Nigeria are consistent with theoretical expectations of the Euro–American theories of crime. Precisely, strong evidence was found to support the premise of the law of crime concentration at places and the opportunity theories of crime while limited support was found for theories of social disorganisation. This thesis demonstrates the possibilities of employing the theoretical frameworks of environmental criminology to explore spatial patterns of urban crime in understudied regions such as sub–Saharan Africa.
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