Population Stabilization Policies
and Programs in Egypt 2014
Updated Study Report
Dr. Osama Refaat
Supervisor of Master Degree, International Institute,
Arab Academy for Science & Technology
International Master Trainer, Johns Hopkins University
PPD International Consultant, UNFPA
Ex. Technical Adviser, Assistant Minister, MOHP
Cairo/Egypt
2014
INDEX
CONTENTS
1- Introduction and Background ----------------------------------------------- 3
A- Geography of Egypt -------------------------------------------------------------- 3
B- Population Size and Structure --------------------------------------------------- 5
2- The Situation of Egypt Population in Three Different Eras ------------- 6
2.1- History Profile on Population Evolution in Egypt -------------------------- 7
2.2- Dimensional Population Problems of Egypt --------------------------------- 8
A- Population Growth Rate ---------------------------------------------------- 8
- Population Projection of Egypt ------------------------------------------ 12
- Rate of Natural Increase --------------------------------------------------- 14
B- Unbalanced Distribution ---------------------------------------------------- 15
C- Population Traits (Characteristics) ---------------------------------------- 16
C.1- Population Characteristics - Age Structure ------------------------- 16
C.2- Health Characteristics ------------------------------------------------- 21
- Fertility ------------------------------------------------------------------ 21
- Mortalities --------------------------------------------------------------- 24
- Life Expectancy -------------------------------------------------------- 32
C.3- Educational Characteristics – Illiteracy ----------------------------- 33
C.4- Social Characteristics -------------------------------------------------- 36
C.5- Economic Characteristics --------------------------------------------- 39
3- Population and Family Planning Profile ---------------------------- 40
Family Planning Contraceptive Method Use ------------------------------ 41
4- Progresses toward Population Stabilization ------------------------ 46
Statement on Population Stabilization -------------------------------------- 47
Policies, Strategies, Objectives ----------------------------------------------- 48
5- Priorities for Future Policies and Strategies -------------------------- 49
6- Conclusion ------------------------------------------------------------------- 56
7- Definitions of Certain Abbreviations ----------------------------------- 56
8- References -------------------------------------------------------------------- 57
1- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
Egypt has a consciousness of the overpopulation risks with its dimensions and the demographic problem since the 1960s.From this respect Egypt has faced major challenges to stabilize its population policies and programs particularly after its last revolutions in January and June 2014. The policy leaders of the government of Egypt have assured that the continuous annual increase in population growth rate will create and formalize an obstacle towards achieving the economic growth and development sustainability. Egypt is still facing three dimensional population problems, "First: The increase of population growth rate, Second: The unbalanced distribution of population over the land and Third: The decrease in population traits". Therefore, the government of Egypt has considered the population development is one of its national priorities.
Certain population figures changed during the last three years (2011-2014) due to the instability of the political circumstances in Egypt. However, the Government of Egypt exerted a lot of efforts and achieved successes in improving the population figures over the past decades. Nowadays the new president with the new government has put updated and modified strategies to fast improving and developing the Egyptian situations. This report will cover the updated knowledge of population events and policies throughout the last 4 years since 2009.
Unfortunately, despite that family planning and reproductive health programs in Egypt have played an important role in lowering the population growth rate from 2.8% in 1986 to 1.6% in 2008, The Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics, CAPMAS in Egypt registered the increase of the population growth rate to 2.6% in 2012 and 2.5% in 2013 which means that the population daily increase reached 5604 persons in 2013. While, the total fertility rate which showed the decreasing from 5.3 in 1980 to 3 in 2008 (EDHS, 2008), now it reached 3.5 in 2014. The crude birth rate which decreased from 39/1000 in 1986 to 26.6/1000 in 2007 reached 31.9/1000 in2012 (CAPAS). While in the contrary, the maternal mortality rate decreased from 174/100000 in 1993 to 68/100000 in 2004, then reached 55/100000 in 2008, then 50/100000 in 2012 and finally it increased to 52/100000 in 2013.Egypt has still a long journey to overturn the population trend and achieve stabilization.
A- Geography of Egypt
Egypt is located in the northeast corner of the African continent. It is bordered by Libya to the west, Sudan to the South, the Red Sea to the east and the Mediterranean Sea to the north. The big bulk of Egypt till the left branch of red sea (including Suez Canal) is located in Africa continent, while the area between the two branches of the red sea which is north, middle and south Sinai is located in Asia continent.The Arab Republic of Egypt is divided into four main geographical divisions. The first division is The Nile Valley and Delta. Its area is around (40 Thousands K.M2). The second division is The Western Desrt, which is (680 Thousands K.M2). The third division is The Eastern Desrt, which is (220 Thousands K.M2). The fourth division is Sinai Peninsula which has an area about (60 Thousands K.M2)Egypt has the largest, most densely settled population among the Arab countries. The total area of the country covers approximately one million square kilometers. However, much of the land is desert, and six percent only of Egypt's area inhabited.
The new Government of Egypt has focused on the second dimensional population problem, “The unbalanced distribution of population over the land”. Therefore, the policy makers proposed establishing new three governorates to control the redistribution of the people over the land. The new three governorates are named “Aaalamen, Alwahat & {Wast Sinai or Middle Sinai}”. (The new Governorates are dotted as seen in Picture -2).
B- Population Size and Structure
The latest population census in Egypt was carried out in November 2006 and announced in 2008. According to the results, Egypt has a de facto population of 72.2 million. This number excludes the roughly 3.9 million Egyptians who are living abroad. According to the 2012 census, official figures released by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics indicate that Egypt's population has reached 92 million living on just 5.3% of the country's area. This statistic shows a growth of 18% since the last census conducted in 2006, when population amounted to 76.5 million.
What is unexpected that The Egyptian population growth rate at home increased from 85 million in August of 2013 to an expected 86 million 2014, which means one million in six months.
The recent estimation announced by CAPMAS in a year 2014 stated that the Egyptian population estimate both at home and abroad is to reach around 94 million. The detailed figures showed that the population inside the country hit 87 million and outside the country hit 7 million.
It was noticed that the population pyramids of Egypt in sequential times has still showing broad base. This means that Egypt is suffering from unbalanced age structure (About 55% of the peoples are below 25 years old, while about 34% of the peoples are below 15 years old" these figures would clarify that the work power represents 21.8 million only from the peoples which may cause a stress burden on Egypt Governorate to achieve the economical development and welfare. However, Egyptians had made civilization and built the pyramids with a population of only two million. Our population at the early 20th Century was 10 million, twofold increased to 20 million by mid-century and threefold at the end of the century hitting 64 million in 2000.
By the beginning of 2008, it is estimated that population had increased by around one and half million to reach 74.3 million (CAPMAS 2008).Today Egypt ranks sixteenth on the list of the most populous countries worldwide. Our population is approaching 94 million, while the population growth rate is 2.5% in 2013 against 2.6% in 2012.
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