The Utilization of System Dynamics
in Concluding Policies for
Greater Cairo Sustainable Development
Naglaa Fahmy,
Alumnus, Maastricht School of Management,
the Netherlands, Outreach Egypt
Khaled Wahba,
Associate Professor,
Systems and Biomedical Engineering Department,
Cairo, Egypt
SD Conference, 2013
ABSTRACT
Consistent with the world global phenomenon, the majority of Egypt population is now moving into urbanized areas. Therefore, Egypt cities and towns stagnated and are currently suffering from overcrowding problems such as degradation of all services including education and healthcare, environment, transportation, etc.
This paper aimed to build a system dynamic model that would assess the policies that are currently adopted by the Egyptian government and give insight about other policies that can improve the quality of life for Egyptians, especially in Greater Cairo. The main finding of this study is that increasing the government expenditure in Greater Cairo would not improve the living conditions of Greater Cairo residents. The model confirmed that the concentration of economic activities in Greater Cairo has increased its attractiveness. The increased attractiveness has increased population growth in Greater Cairo much more than the capacity of its utilities, which resulted in a degradation of the quality of life in Greater Cairo.
The findings of this study recommended that the government should direct its investment into new nuclei whereby there are many underused resources. However, the model indicated that these nuclei would not succeed unless the government implemented other measures that would encourage the community to respond positively towards the policy of establishing new nuclei. Such measures include strict enforcement of the existing laws, especially those laws that organizing construction. The model indicated that the establishment of new nuclei strategy would not succeed with a weak government. The findings also addressed the need to adjust the renting laws.
KEYWORDS - Urban planning, system dynamics, government policies, sustainable development, informal settlements, poverty rates, renting laws, slums.
CONCLUSION
The conclusion of this research is that the policies that are currently adopted by the government are unfavourable in the long run for Egypt population quality of life. The system thinking of the urban dynamics indicate that some policies are giving impact that is contrary with the expectations. For example, the introduction of low costs housing programs appears attractive as it partially reduces the gap between the supply and demand of affordable houses. However, it gave unfavourable results on GC quality of life in the long run, as it increase the attractiveness of GC and thus increases the population growth.
Accordingly, the intuitive decision of increasing the supply of low cost houses in GC, though it appear attractive in the short run, but, in the long run, it give an impact opposite than the intended impact. As a matter of fact, the increased supply of affordable houses, increase the pressure on GC utilities, which reduce the quality of the services that is available for GC residence. Based on the foregoing, the decision makers in Egypt need to reconsider their adopted policies and start the implementation of new policies that are better suit the Egyptian community.
The objective of this research was to develop a system dynamics simulation model that can help decision makers and political leaders to take strategic decisions for the best interest of the Egyptian community.
After verifying the model from different urban planners, the model was tested by applying different values for the concentration of economic activities in Greater Cairo. The results of the initial runs were compatible with the model rational. The model proved that the increase in the concentration of economic activities in Greater Cairo is not for the best interest of the Egyptian population or the residents of GC. The model proved that increasing the concentration of economic activities in GC add more pressure to GC utilities and increase the attraction of GC which increase the population growth, and visa versa.
Then the model was used in evaluating possible policies or scenarios that can be implemented by decision makers. The target of the model is to evaluate the impact of each scenario on the growth of population density, the shortage of affordable houses and the expansion of informal settlements. It was found that these parameters would give insight about the quality of life of Greater Cairo population.
Also, the selected strategy should reduce poverty rates of the Egyptian, reduce the population of slums, reduce the expansion of informal settlements and reduce the pressure on all GC utilities in order to improve the human welfare and quality of life. Comparing to the current situation, any of such achievements could be a great challenge.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Based on the literature review, the urban dynamics theories and the analysis and the interpretation of the model runs, the following recommendations for the political leaders can be summarized:
First: Short Term Policies
1. Data-base: start the creation of an accurate and comprehensive data-base system covering all Egypt characteristics including data about poverty, average income, extent of agricultural land, land use at cities margins, locations for water, locations of row materials, etc. This data base can enable decision makers to conclude better policies.
2. Renting laws: an adjustment of the existing and contradicting renting laws is essential. The laws should put pressure on houses owners to offer their houses for rent. For example, the government can cancel the old renting laws, or set taxes on the owners of a second housing unit, or any other laws. Houses owners should be given incentive to offer their houses for rent rather than closing it for security. If the renting laws are adjusted more than 30% of the current houses units will be offered for rent in the houses market, which would show immediate favourable results such as the reduction of renting costs and the reduction of the shortage of affordable houses.
3. Gradual enforcement of laws: the government should start to strictly enforce laws that impose constraints on the maximum buildings heights, minimum spaces around the buildings, minimum roads width, etc. Then laws related to the construction regulations should be gradually applied, after offering alternative places for those who are searching for houses.
4. Define Egypt locations that are characterized by its richness of resources, such as availability of raw materials, unique location, touristic attractiveness, etc.
5. Establish a proper financial and legal structure that would, for example, offer incentive for investors and businessmen who agrees to relocate their enterprises at the new defined locations.
6. Similar to the taxis experience that were applied years ago, the government can establish financial and legal structure that would give incentive to buildings owners to either maintain their buildings or demolish and reconstruct it. This policy can grant sustainable development of the existing buildings.
7. Increase the community awareness and encourage the participation of the community in the established strategic plans. With the community participation, political leaders can avoid political unrests.
8. Though subsidization is essential to support low-income population, the government should re-assess its related approaches. Studies indicated that the government expenditure in subsidizing do not reach to the people who really need it.
9. Decentralization of decision making in the governorates. This will enable each governor to take decisions that are convenient to the resources that are available in its governorate.
Second: Long Term strategies
10. Economic activities should be distributed in a balancing manner. Government should create policies that would give incentives to investors to relocate in governorates of high poverty rates. All Egypt existing governorates should be of nearly equal attractiveness in order to reduce the internal migration from a governorate to another.
11. Government should focus in enhancing the education. This is a focal step for the use of human capital as a source of innovation and creation. Without proper education programs, the human capital will overburden Egypt development.
12. Reinforce the legal system to ensure strict enforcement of laws. A weak government will not be able to implement any plan.
13. Plan for the establishment of new nuclei at the identified locations that are characterized by its richness of resources, such as availability of raw materials, touristic attractiveness, etc. Then the government should focus all its investments in such locations for the best use of their uniqueness and competitive advantages. Every new nuclei should be unique in its characteristics, for example, we can have industrial, agricultural, educational, touristic community, etc.
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