GIS as integrating tool in
Sustainability and Global Change
Dissertation zur Erlangung des Doktorgrades der Naturwissenschaften
im Departement Geowissenschaften der Universität Hamburg
vorgelegt von
Christine Schleupner
aus Heide in Dithmarschen
Hamburg 2008
Reports on Earth System Science
62\2009
M a x - P l a n c k - I n s t i t u t f ü r M e t e o r o l o g i e
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Contents
Acknowledgements iv
Table of contents v
List of tables ix
List of figures x
Preface xiii
Summary xvi
Zusammenfassung xviii
Part I Spatial Analysis of Coastal Impacts on Martinique 1
Introduction 2
1. Evaluating the Regional Impact Potential to Erosion and Inundation Caused by Coastal Hazards5
1.1. Introduction 5
1.2. Materials and Methods 6
1.2.1. Sensitivity assessment of the Martinique coast to erosion and inundation 6
1.2.2. Evaluation of the flood impact area 13
1.2.3. Validation by recent and historical coastline changes on Martinique 15
1.3. Results 17
1.4. Discussion and Conclusion 21
1.5. Annex 23
2. Evaluation of coastal squeeze and its consequences for the Caribbean island Martinique 25
2.1. Introduction 25
2.1.1. Coastal squeeze 25
2.1.2. Sea level rise in the Caribbean 25
2.1.3. Mangrove response to climate change and sea level rise in the Caribbean26
2.1.4. Martinique 27
2.1.5. Beaches and mangroves on Martinique 27
2.1.6. Tourism on Martinique 30
2.2. Methodology: evaluation of coastal squeeze and its consequences 31
2.3. Results 34
2.3.1. Sensitivity of Martinique wetlands and beaches to coastal squeeze 34
2.3.2. Human impacts on mangrove squeeze and beach reduction 36
2.3.3. Consequences of coastal squeeze and beach reduction for Martinique tourism 37
2.4. Summary 38
2.5. Conclusion 41
3. Spatial assessment of sea level rise on Martinique’s coastal zone and analysis of planning frameworks for adaptation 43
3.1. Introduction 43
3.1.1. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise in the Caribbean 43
3.1.2 Martinique and its coastal population 43
3.1.3. Policy instruments for the coastal zone on Martinique 44
3.1.4. Evaluating vulnerability and adaptation to sea level rise 46
3.2. Methodology to conduct spatial planning assessments 48
3.2.1. Vulnerability evaluation to sea level rise impacts 49
3.2.2. Formulation of CZM strategies and targets 53
3.2.3. Development of adaptation potentials 53
3.3. Results 54
3.3.1. Sensitivity and vulnerability evaluation to sea level rise impacts 54
3.3.2. Coastal zone management on Martinique - legislation and response strategies to accelerated sea level rise 57
3.3.3. Illustration of adaptation potentials 60
3.4. Discussion and conclusions 62
Part II Habitat impact assessments of agricultural land use changes in Eiderstedt 65
Introduction 66
4. Agricultural land use changes in Eiderstedt: historic developments and future plans 67
vi
4.1. Ecological implications of land use choices on Eiderstedt 67
4.2. Historic development of agricultural land use in Eiderstedt 68
4.3. The controversy about plans for future land use change 71
4.4. Scenarios of land use development in the next decades 73
4.5. Possible implications of a conversion of grassland to arable farm land 78
5. Potential impacts on important bird habitats in Eiderstedt (Schleswig-Holstein) caused by agricultural land use changes 81
5.1. Introduction 81
5.1.1. Agricultural land use changes on Eiderstedt 81
5.1.2. Eiderstedt as important habitat for breeding and migrating bird species 84
5.2. Methodology 84
5.2.1. Aims and methods 84
5.2.2. Data and software used in the assessment 86
5.2.3. The Habitat-Sensitivity-Index as measure of biotope quality changes 86
5.2.4. Implications for bird populations 91
5.3 Scenarios 91
5.4. Results 93
5.5. Discussion and conclusion 99
5.6. Annex 103
Part III Integrated wetland distribution modelling for optimal land use options 105
Introduction 106
6. Estimation of spatial wetland distribution potentials in Europe 109
6.1. Introduction 109
6.2. Methods 113
6.2.1. Definition of wetlands 113
6.2.2. The spatial wetland distribution model “Swedi” 114
6.3. Results 124
vii
6.4. Discussion 128
6.5. Appendix 131
7. Evaluation of European wetland restoration potentials by considering economic costs under different policy options 133
7.1. Introduction 133
7.2. Methodology 135
7.2.1. The Spatial Wetland Distribution (Swedi) model 135
7.2.2. EUFASOM Scenarios 137
7.3. Empirical Results 138
7.4. Summary and Conclusions 148
8. A cost-efficient spatial site-selection model for European wetland restoration 151
8.1. Introduction 151
8.2. The wetland site-selection model – a methodological introduction 155
8.3. Results 164
8.4. Discussion and Conclusion 169
8.5. Appendix 173
Part IV Synthesis and next steps 175
References xxi
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