اتجاهات التغير للغطاء واستعمالات الأراضي والتنبؤ بها
في منطقة المسيب بابل باستخدام الجيوماتكس
أ.د. رقية أحمد محمد أمين، الجامعة العراقية
أ.م.د. بلسم شاكر شنيشل ، الجامعة العراقية
الباحث. حسين صدى عباس ، الجامعة العراقية
Change trends and prediction for Lcluc in the Musayib area of Babylon Governorate using geomatics
Prof. Ruqaya Ahmed Mohammed Amin, Iraqi University / College of Arts.
Dr .Balsam Shaker Shnichal, Iraqi University / College of Arts.
Hussein Sada Abbas, Iraqi University / College of Arts
مجلّة مداد الآداب - كلية الآداب الجامعة العراقية - المجلد 1 - العدد الخاص بمؤتمر قسم الجغرافية 2023م - ص ص .1379-1400:
Abstract:
Determine the axes of trends of Lcluc changes in Musayib district – north of Babylon Governorate for the period between 2000-2020 for the satellite Landsat-8,7, after making the necessary digital processors for those images and classifying them using hybrid classification in the software ARC GIS 10.7, ERDAS 2014 and the adoption of the classification system of the US Geological Survey USGS. Therefore, the goal here is to know the areal change in Lcluc and determine the axes of the most changing trend of Lcluc, the general trend of Lcluc, and the general direction of change in the region, and to predict what will become of future changes and what are the most vulnerable uses to change, through the trend rose that shows the proportions of the areas of change and direction in the light of the results of digital processors of images and their classification, so the Idrisi program was used to simulate the future change of Lcluc for the region, and this software enables the possibility of applying the CA-MARKOV model that combines cellular self-behavior and Markov series analysis, Multi-Criteria Evolution evaluation analysis (MCE), Multi-Objective Land Allocation (MOLA), cover prediction procedures that add an element of spatial communication, and know of the potential spatial distribution of transformations that provide ideas for future planning. Keywords: hybrid classification, direction of change, simulation of future change, model of ca-markov
Introduction: Many studies of cover change Lcluc show that subject to determining the trends of change for Lcluc varieties, and future forecasting is not addressed because it is a topic of great importance in geographical studies at the moment through its role in drawing future policies for planning and development processes (Al-Mawla, Ali, 2018:405), so a spatial model was made within the environment of the Idrisi program by applying (Markov's algorithm) to show the varieties of land cover that will change in the Musayib area, and from those studies (Al-Ani, (2004) changes Land cover for Balad area using digital processing methods and automatic classification of remote sensing data, Digital processing methods and the automatic classification of remote sensing data and the emergence of a new scientific field called integration between remote sensing data and geographic information systems were used to study changes in the region of Balad, (Al-Ghazi, 2010), studied the changes of the land cover of the Alhamar marsh for the period 1973-2008 using remote sensing techniques, and adopted the formula of integration between remote sensing techniques and geographic information systems in the study of changes in Lcluc of the Alhamar marsh area for the period (1973-2008), and there are studies that dealt with The subject of the current study, (Sudani, 2019) Land cover in the eastern part of Wasit Governorate using modern technologies, a study in physical geography, the adoption of space images analysis to calculate the areas for each of the varieties of land cover and the calculation of the change in the areas classified in the eastern part of Wasit Governorate, (Hassan Rajab, 2020), spatial modeling of urban sprawl in the city of Duhok using the Markov algorithm (CA-Markov), (Ayasra, 2018), simulation of urban growth based on modeling cellular behavior and modeling of land changing The study showed that the class that has undergone the largest change and for all axes in the Musayib area is agricultural land, as its area has declined significantly and it is expected that this decline will continue in favor of other classes.
Conclusions:
1- The study proved that the hybrid classification method is more effective in distinguishing ground covers compared to other classification methods, for the possibility of adding external data and the possibility of modifying it, as well as it integrates with the method of image and digital classification (Supervised and unsupervised) and does not eliminate them.
2- The maps of the directions of change show that the change of LCLU in the region has been concentrated in three directions (axes) (NE, NW, west) where the variable area in these parts (195.68) km2 with a change rate of (20%) of the total area of the region and also shows that the urban growth in the region has taken two directions, namely (NE - south-southwest) with the extension of the main roads and the Euphrates River and its branches.
3- The study concluded that the human factor had the greatest impact on changing LCLU in the region, whether negative or positive, as well as natural factors.
4- Through the application of simulation models using LCM modeling and CA-Markov modeling, it was possible to predict the future change of land cover and land use to spend Musayib until (2030) in terms of the amount and direction of the developed area, where the results of LCM modeling and CA-Markov modeling showed the continuation of the decrease in cultivated areas to reach (243.47) km2 and the increase in the area of barren land to (403.35) km2 As for the water, its areas are expected to decrease
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